The Great Bust Ahead is a concise, straight to the point short book laying out in stark terms the case for a coming depression of historically unprecedented magnitude. It will be worse than the 1930s, beginning nominally in 2012, but perhaps as early as 2009-2010 and lasting up to thirteen years. Centered on hard fact demographics, the book boldly claims that the data presented are so irrefutable, that the outcome predicted by the book is equally as irrefutable. The compelling proof presented accurately accounts for the detailed trend of the economy from 1920 to today (something never before accomplished), and projects out to 2030. The book is very easy to read and understand, and requires no prior knowledge of economics. Down to earth things the average person can do to prepare for what is coming are covered. A summary of the catastrophic domestic social and international consequences is offered.

October 2007 Update: In 2002 when this book was published, in addition to the massive depression beginning around the end of the decade, it forecast:
1. The economy, as reflected by the DJIA, would resume its upwards march in late 2002 or 2003. This is exactly what happened.
2. The DJIA would have a snapback to 13,000 to 14,000 and the FTSE to 6,000 to 7,000 by 2004, but delayed possibly by wars/politics/terrorism/scandals. This is exactly what has happened. Although the full snapback has been delayed for the reasons described, the DJIA has now closed over 14,100 and the FTSE over 6,700.
3. The DJIA returns from 2003 to 2012 would average a historically long-term normal of 7% to 8%. So far, with the delayed full snapback for the reasons described, DJIA actual returns have averaged a more modest 5.8%, as would be expected.
4. Interest rates would increase from 2003 onwards. This is exactly what has happened.

Customer Rating:
Summary: Mediocre thesis
Comment: The basic thesis, that there will be another Great Depression, seven times worse in fact according to the author, rests entirely on one premise: the number of 45-54 year olds peaking and declining precipitously will cause the Dow Jones (the economy) to crash just as hard. I must admit, the 80+ year correlation between the inflation-adjusted DJIA and the 45-54 year old demographic is astounding. But as we all should know, correlation does not equal causation. In fact that correlation unraveling as we speak, the Dow was sluggish at around 11,000 until 2006-2007, turned highly volatile, peaked in 2007 at over 14,000, and declined since then to well below 12,000. We are now in a bear market if not a recession, and All while the "big-spender" demographic skyrocketed, which will continue until 2011! Where is the boom? The Dow should be on its way to 26,000 and eventually crash to 5000 according to the author. Although this was not the first time the two graphs diverged, he seems to have an explanation for the other divergences (e.g. the New Deal, birth control, etc.). If the New Deal could turn things around, how come this time he says the government will not be able to do anything about it? This book leaves the reader with more questions than answers.

I do believe we are in for some rough times ahead, but demographics is not the reason. The credit and housing crises, combined with high oil and food prices (really just a commodities bubble that has popped), has been hammering away at the economy for the past year or so, and things may still get worse before they get better. Stagflationary recession is likely if we are not already in one, and it may be longer and deeper that expected. But a 13-year depression? The only things that could do that (given all the safeguards we now have in place thanks to FDR) are a) Peak Oil happening suddenly, b) a major war or severe terrorist attack, or c) The Fed. Even Bernanke admits the Fed turned the mild recession of 1929 into a full blown depression through overreacting and using an outdated playbook (i.e. raising rates before and during a deflationary recession).

As for Japan, their 13-year malaise was caused by their own housing and credit crisis, plus the stock market (Nikkei) bursting. Combined with the BOJ raising rates. And like us, the correlation between the Nikkei and demographics has parted ways since 2007, when it declined again.

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Customer Rating:
Summary: A waste of time and money
Comment: You do not need an economics background to write a book like this but the ability to construct a logical argument or a knowledge of history would help. The author ignores even the most basic understanding of monetary supply, fractional reserve banking or GDP. An annoying book demonstrating the authors ignorance and little more.

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Customer Rating:
Summary: This booklet has some good points
Comment: The ideas in this booklet have some ground. I wouldn't swear by the correlation between demorgaphics and Dow Jones Index, but there is some sense. Worth reading to be better prepared for the upcoming events.

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Customer Rating:
Summary: Greatest Depression
Comment: This is a great little book that you can read in less than an hour. It's based on the work of Harry S. Dent in Mr. Dent's excellent book The Next Great Bubble Boom. I believe the concept. I think demographics is the most important factor in the economy of the future. The demographics of the United States is very bad. You can't replace 78 million boomers with 48 million Gen Xer's. The Xer's will already have jobs and careers. The numbers of the generation after the Xer's is not good at all. Who will replace the boomers when millions start to retire? Who will replace their spending? Bonds? The author Daniel Arnold talks about bonds on page 47 of his book The Great Bust Ahead. Long term bonds? Nuts! Bonds are just a promise backed my nothing. It's the generational bonds that will be broken. The old people of the future will not be related by blood or race to the young people of the future. Overall, I agree with the author and his computer models, once the huge bulge of the middle aged boomers move through the system and start retiring, markets can only go down. Regards, Keith Renick, Peachtree City, Ga.

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Customer Rating:
Summary: I see the light...
Comment: I think this author is on to something. I can agree with his point of view because he lays out the facts (from the Government, mind you). The book was written a long while ago, I read it a small while ago, and now it is happening just like he laid it out. What comes next? You have to read it and weep. Or... read it and prepare.

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