"The ideas in his book will help you see the world in a new way."-Bill Clinton


"Mark Penn has a keen mind and a fascinating sense of what makes America tick, and you see it on every page of Microtrends."

-Bill Gates

In 1982, readers discovered Megatrends.

In 2000, The Tipping Point entered the lexicon.

Now, in Microtrends, one of the most respected and sought-after analysts in the world articulates a new way of understanding how we live.

Mark Penn, the man who identified "Soccer Moms" as a crucial constituency in President Clinton's 1996 reelection campaign, is known for his ability to detect relatively small patterns of behavior in our culture-microtrends that are wielding great influence on business, politics, and our personal lives. Only one percent of the public, or three million people, is enough to launch a business or social movement.

Relying on some of the best data available, Penn identifies more than 70 microtrends in religion, leisure, politics, and family life that are changing the way we live. Among them:

• People are retiring but continuing to work.
  
• Teens are turning to knitting.
  
• Geeks are becoming the most sociable people around.
  
• Women are driving technology.
  
• Dads are older than ever and spending more time with their kids than in the past.

You have to look at and interpret data to know what's going on, and that conventional wisdom is almost always wrong and outdated. The nation is no longer a melting pot. We are a collection of communities with many individual tastes and lifestyles. Those who recognize these emerging groups will prosper.

Penn shows readers how to identify the microtrends that can transform a business enterprise, tip an election, spark a movement, or change your life. In today's world, small groups can have the biggest impact.

Customer Rating:
Summary: Microtrends or Megatrends?
Comment: We know that trends are forces that indicate us directions where we are heading to. As so, they shape the future of our society.
The authors describe important microtrends for 21st century using numbers and statistics to spot them.
Instead of claiming that our society is moving in a couple of big directions, the authors argue that America is moving in a hundred of small directions.
The microtrends shown here are organized in groups by subjects; if you read them all, you'll be able to spot some megatrends that are changing people's behavior and atittudes at our times.
Really interesting book for anyone!

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Customer Rating:
Summary: Cross-section of Present-day America
Comment: Mark Penn is amazing. Or rather, his method of using polls to track small trends among average American citizens is unreservedly uncanny. You will catch yourself saying, "Who would've thought...[complete the microtrend] would spell ___ for America?"

As if identifying Soccer Moms wasn't an amazing enough feat for Penn, he now has identified 75 trends we should watch out for, that could really change America as we know it currently. I think one of the biggest microtrends I remember is Internet Marrieds - or people who meet on the internet and eventually get hitched. What does that mean for their kids? Will they be on chatrooms 24/7 until they forget about dinner? Will that encourage them to find a relationship by surfing the internet, rather than someone they know at school?

Seriously, you might even identify yourself with one of the microtrends. The strength of a microtrend is not so much in the numbers as it is in the passion - and that may enlarge its sphere of influence as more are encouraged to "be who they are."

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Customer Rating:
Summary: An intriguing and fun skimread
Comment: Do what reviewer Gaetan Lion says: read the introduction, then the conclusions, then skim the 75 micro groups he describes and read the ones that interest you. I was delighted to learn that some of my own lifestyle choices are microtrends. (It's not just me! I'm not a freak!) And I learned some very interesting and surprising things (I had NO idea that tattoos and unnecessary plastic surgery were so completely mainstream). If you were looking for new small business ventures to try, knowing about these 75 groups could give you some great ideas on a market to tap. This book provided a very pleasant evening but it's a skimread intro, with few indepth conclusions.

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Customer Rating:
Summary: 75 Interesting Thoughts About the Future!
Comment: "Microtrends" is very informative. It looks at the beginnings of new trends by looking at some which may initially only show up in 1% of population samples. The reason 1% is used is because with populations so large, 1% can be a very large number, especially with the flattening of the world, where even isolated minorities can connect so easily via the Internet, etc and generate critical masses. The author, Mark Penn, is a polling expert and relates that numbers will almost always take you where you want to go if you know how to read them. The book is an easy read with about 3 -4 pages for each of the 75 'microtrends' covered. All were interesting, but a few caught my eye.

1. Sex-Ratio Singles. Because the percentage of single women is increasing and historians have documented that a society with too many unattached men leads to war, will a society with too many unattached women lead to peace?

2. Number Junkies. Americans love numbers, but not arithmetic. Despite the popularity of TV shows like 'CSI' and 'Numb3rs' and movies like 'Good Will Hunting', 'A Beautiful Mind' and 'The Da Vinci Code', Harvard last year only had 77 math majors out of 6700 undergraduates.

3. Eurostars. Since European couples are having less kids and since only and oldest children tend to be highly motivated, perfectionists and inclined to leadership, Europe's youth will be an especially talented group. The author notes that every US astronaut was an oldest child.

4. Aspiring Snipers. In a small poll of CA youths, 1% looked to be snipers in ten years. Sure, this could be troublesome, but since snipers, besides being so talented, are more needed in urban situations in war and is a more moral way to kill than bombing, since bombing kills so many innocent victims. Previously, one would have expected more youths to aspire to be military pilots. Perhaps video games caused the change. There is much to think about, here.

5. Protestant Hispanics. Which country sends the most Protestants to the US? Mexico. Interesting!

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Customer Rating:
Summary: Excellent analysis of contemporary society
Comment: This is a really fun and fascinating book. Penn's theory is "the Devil is in the details." Don't look for overarching trends that end up being vapid and inaccurate. Look instead for the hundreds of small trends under the radar screen that in combination radically changes society.

To enjoy this book read the introduction and the conclusion first. Then, cherry pick the trends you are most interested in. In the introduction, Penn outline his theory of the 1% threshold. By the time 1% of Americans do something this represents a huge cluster of 3 million people that is worth paying attention to. Within the conclusion, Penn makes sense of all those disparate trends. That's where he explains how our society is becoming increasingly fragmented because of the growth of choice in lifestyle, values, and religions. Thus, many trends are contradictory. We live in an increasingly secular world with a rise in religions. Both trends (secularism and religion) thrive simultaneously. Each trend he analyses is a stand alone short paper on a specific subject. At some point, you may run out of trends you are interested in. You don't have to read all 73 trends to enjoy the book.

Within each trend analysis, Penn first observes the data and how that trend emerged and came to be. Next he outlines what are the trend's implications. The people representing that trend often make up a niche associated with the creation of new markets, voting block or cultural influence.

Sometimes, you may think several trends converge. In other words, the emergence of single women must correlate to the surge in Cougars (women with younger boyfriends) and Wordy Women (successful career women in law, journalism, PR, and advertising). These women may be all the same ones: single-successful-liberated. Another potential convergence is the Long Attention Spanners, DIY Doctors, Swing Voter, and Sun Haters. Here you have a mature educated crowd that likes to think for themselves especially when pertaining to their health and politics.

Many of his trends refer to entire books. His `Educated Terrorists' trend relies on Alan Krueger's What Makes a Terrorist: Economics and the Roots of Terrorism (Lionel Robbins Lectures). Similarly, his `Shy Millionaire' liens on The Millionaire Next Door.

On the other hand, other trends are truly original. I had never heard of the Do-It-Yourself Doctors. These people research their symptoms, render their own diagnostics and administer their own cure. They have changed the patient-doctor relationship to one of retailer-customer. The doctor is just there to facilitate procurement of prescription drugs, tests, and surgical intervention when necessary. Just as the overall population, they distrust the medical establishment. Trust in the latter has decreased from 77% in 1966 to only 33% currently.

His depiction of the `Impressionable Elites' is also counterintuitive. It is the higher income and better educated that care more about personality and less about issues in Presidential Elections. This is just the reverse of what we believe. The archetype is star journalists and newscasters who are certainly wealthy and educated. But, they focus on sound bites, looks, hair cuts, and other trivia. Apparently, the rest of us are more concerned about substantive issues such as foreign policy, health care, education, and economic competitiveness. Penn deplores the advent of the 527 advocacy organizations and Elite Donors who give readily $10,000 a pop to affiliated political groups. Given these are funded by the Impressionable Elites; they foster more trivia than substance on our political debates.

His chapter on the power of the swing voter is excellent. Independents have increased from 25% to 33% of the voters over the past 50 years. He indicated how Karl Rove strategy of rallying the conservative base failed in the 2006 mid-term election. However, Karl Rove did not have much of a role in this election. But, he sure did in both 2000 and 2004. Penn makes the argument that one independent voter amounts to two polarized voters because they represent a swing in the numbers. He is right. But, the counter argument is that it is a lot more difficult to convince an independent voter to change his mind than to tell your base to just show up and vote. Nevertheless, this is an excellent section that parallels very much the equally fascinating work in Culture War? The Myth of a Polarized America (Great Questions in Politics Series) (2nd Edition) (Great Questions in Politics)

His chapter on active, employed elders suggests the fiscal stress on Social Security will be less than conveyed by the pundits. His chapter on the aging of Europe is also interesting. The median age of Europeans is expected to increase from 37.7 years to 52.7 years by 2050. While for Americans it will remain stable around 36 years. This has obviously dire fiscal implication for Europe. But, he thinks the next generation of Europeans will solve the related problems as they will be a generation of confident, problem-solving, achieving only children. This sounds a bit facile, but interesting nonetheless.

As he mentions in his conclusion, trends often have counter trends. There are more Muslim terrorists. But, there are also more Moderate Muslims in America. That's a fascinating trend he uncovers. He also outlines the drastic difference between the American vs European Muslims. The American ones are moderate, well-integrated, educated, successful, and prosperous. The European ones are disenfranchised, radicalized, and unemployed. This is a fascinating subject that has been covered by many equally interesting books including: While Europe Slept: How Radical Islam is Destroying the West from Within and American Islam: The Struggle for the Soul of a Religion.

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